Federal Reserve Forum

Interest Rate Hikes, When Will They Stop?
The Federal Reserve has met twice since my last newsletter. After the May 10th meeting, Ben utters the dreaded “inflation” word causing the stock markets to sell off in lock step. Then in June, Ben says, “the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time”. In other words, the interest rate increases are working. No kidding but when will it stop?

These most recent Fed comments revealed the first hint that we may be nearing the end of the Federal Reserve’s 17 consecutive 1/4 point interest rate increases. (In case you’re wondering, 17 quarter points is 4.25%) For the first time since it began raising rates from a low of 1%, in June of 2004, the Fed didn’t explicitly say another rate increase was under consideration. Currently, the futures market has priced in a 63% chance of a rate hike to 5.5% in August. This would give us a prime rate of 8.5%.

This is 50 basis points below the previous peak Mr. Greenspan set in 2000. In the mean time, the Fed will continue to read the economic tea leaves over the next 45 days. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are set to raise rates in the next thirty days.

How might the current series of rate increases affect you? First, if you’re in the market for a new home or need to refinance, mortgage rates for fixed rate loans should reach 7% in 2007. If you have a home equity loan tied to the prime rate, your interest rate will more than double to somewhere around 8.5%. The popular interest only ARM loans will also double in rate just when the housing market has stalled. This may make it difficult to refinance when homes have not appreciated or may have even dropped. The overall impact here may be a loss of value in residential real estate between 10% and 20% from the 2005 peak. Combine this with the increases in gas and other raw materials and you may get a recession in late 2007. However, as with all recessions, we will not know until we have been in one for at least 6 months!

Is there a silver lining? Sure, six month CDS are now paying over 5.5%, nearly 4 times their low back in 2003! Also, market slowdowns generally create great buying opportunities. Remember, the economy works in cycles and we are about five years into the current economic cycle.

Asset Allocation

Buy Low, Sell High – Not As Easy As It Sounds

Small investors seem to continuously chase the market trend and use a strategy I call “recency”: What ever the most recent phenomenon of making money is, follow it. We have seen recency with dot bomb stocks, real estate, emerging markets, gold, etc. These investors are applying reverse market timing. Wait until something gets run up really high, then buy it only to watch it free fall. Then sell it! In other words, “buy high, sell low”.

Why does this happen? Most institutional investors apply an asset management strategy in their portfolios. This means that when one asset class of the portfolio grows beyond the tolerance set by the manager, they sell. It also means when an asset class falls below the tolerance level they buy. Here’s the rub: institutional investors have more money than retail investors. So when a retail investor is following a trend, and the institutional investors are selling what is high, the retail investor becomes the bug and the institutional investor becomes the windshield. So why play this game?

Fasten your seatbelts, do not panic, have patience and follow a long term plan. In its simplest form, asset allocation is a strategy with fixed percentages in cash; bonds both domestic and international, US Equities both large and small, and international stocks both large and small. The portfolio is then rebalanced periodically. This rebalancing process creates the “buy low sell high” discipline! It also removes guessing which generally creates havoc on the portfolio.

A Time For Giving

You don’t need to wait until the holiday season to start thinking of others. Warren Buffet, the world’s second richest man, announced plans to give away 85% of his fortune ($30 billion) to the foundation started by the world’s richest man, Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will then double in size to $60 billion, making it more than twice the size of the next 3 largest foundations combined (Ford Foundation $11 Billion, Lilly Endowment $8 Billion, and Andrew W. Mellon Foundation $5.5 Billion).

Foundations must give away 5% of their assets per year to keep their tax exempt status. Thus, the Gates Foundation will need to give away over $3 billion per year to the causes of their choice. The Foundation has been spending money on research, prevention and treatment for AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. It focuses its efforts in developing countries, primarily in Africa and Asia. This leaves plenty of good causes for the rest of us to get involved with.

According to a survey produced by the Giving USA Foundation, Americans gave $200 billion to charities and other non-profits in 2005. In addition, nearly 80% of Americans give to at least one organization at least once per year and the average contribution per family is 2.2% of after tax annual income. That’s only $3,000 per year for a family earning $200,000 per year.

What’s the point of making lots of money and not giving anything back? There are many people who are less fortunate than us, who could benefit from even the smallest donation. And with all of the charities available today, it’s easy to choose one that you feel would best benefit from your help.

Life is short. Don’t be average. Give today!

Market Summary

The 2nd quarter of 2006 was tough for virtually all market segments. The US market and international markets fell in May, but rebounded slightly in June. The S&P 500, the index measuring the 500 largest US stocks by their market capitalization, fell 2.3% for the quarter and the EAFE Index (a market value weighted index of the largest companies in Europe, Australia, and the Far East) declined .26% over the same period. Year to date, the S&P 500 and the EAFE were up 1.8% and 8.94% respectively.

What caused the drop? It started with comments made by new Fed Chair Ben Bernanke following the May 10th Federal Reserve meeting on the subject of inflation. For the first time, Ben did not speak in code as his predecessor Alan Greenspan always had, and actually used the word “inflation” in his speech. This sent the S&P 500 down 5%, while international markets got pounded nearly 10%. Then in June, the markets recovered slightly following comments where Bernanke did not specifically mention rate increases. It is amazing what a few simple words uttered by the Fed can do to world markets. As former Chair Greenspan has said, “I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said”.

Sector Performance Report 6/30/06

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Book Review: Unconventional Success

Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment
By David F. Swensen

Swensen, CIO of Yale University and the author of Pioneering Portfolio Management, reveals why the mutual fund industry as a whole does a disservice to the individual investor. Soft money, 12b-1 fees, overtrading, market timing, and other management practices lower performance and virtually guarantee that most mutual fund returns will fall short of their benchmark, such as the S&P 500.

Furthermore, for-profit mutual fund companies have a fiduciary obligation to their stockholders, not to their investors, and this relationship "inevitably resolves in favor of the bottom line." Swensen is also highly critical of the Morningstar rating system, which only causes investors to chase hot performing funds and managers.

He advises considering alternatives to the for-profit mutual fund industry, including Exchange Traded Funds and not-for-profit financial institutions such as Vanguard and TIAA-CREF. He highly recommends that as an individual, you should play a more active role in your financial future. This includes periodic portfolio evaluation and rebalancing, to ensure that your asset allocation remains diversified and suits your investment time line.

Credit: Booklist

Market Summary

The first quarter of 2006 has started out with a bang! Nearly every sector except utilities, one of last year’s hot sectors, is up. You could have invested in just about anything and made money (and hopefully you did). US stocks, both large and small; international and emerging markets, all posted excellent returns. The S&P 500 index increased 3.7% for the quarter, more than all of 2005!

In fact the S&P 500 earned more last quarter than the average annual return of the index over the past 5 years. Small and medium sized stocks continued to out perform their larger brethren by a large margin. The Russell 2000 index of small stocks rose nearly 14% setting a new record high. “Value stocks” outperformed “growth stocks” nearly 2 to 1 for the quarter according to Morningstar, Inc.

During the first quarter, the Federal Reserve, under new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, continued increasing short term rates. Two rate hikes of 1/4% were added to the previous 13, pushing the prime rate up to 7.75%. This is the index tied to most home equity loans. In my year end summary, I predicted the Fed would stop at this level. However, recent Fed comments like this, "some further policy firming may be needed.” indicate the fed will continue increase rates at least one more time.

When To Harvest Stock Options

Employees with stock options are faced with a tough dilemma. In order to convert the option into real value, they must cash it in. If they cash the option in, they realize the intrinsic value of the option, the difference between the option price and the current market value. This removes the risk of having the option become worthless. However, by exercising, they lose any remaining time value left in the option and they incur the tax liability.

There are a variety of strategies designed to deal with this dilemma.

1. The “Need Approach”: Cash in the option when you need the money. This clearly does nothing to balance investment risk and reward

2. The “Prediction Approach”: Many optionees and some advisors, try to time the harvesting of the stock based on some prediction of how the stock is going to perform. The reliability of such perditions is not possible. This approach often fails and sometime with spectacularly disastrous results.

3. “Timeline Approach”: There are basically three options with this approach:

a. Exercise as soon as possible. In this case, exercise options as soon as they vest as long as you are in the money. This approach is conservative but wasteful because you will lose all of the time value of the option

b. Exercise as late as possible. In this case, options are exercised just before they expire. This approach avoids wasting any of the options value but leaves the optionee exposed to risks of stock devaluation for a very long period of time.

c. Select a random period of time such as 1 year before expiration. The idea here is to minimize the risk and still receive some time value for the option .

4. A Balance Approach: This approach provides the greatest possible return for the least risk. It is also different for just about everyone. The approach here is to convert a high-risk investment, into a normal diversified investment, while not losing a large portion of its value. Thus, converting the stock in the value to be gained is significantly larger than the time value that is lost. Thus, options deep in the money should be cashed sooner than those with smaller gains. One also has to take into account the value of the option relative to ones overall net worth. Options representing large portions of net worth should be exercised sooner.

Tax Implications for Nonqualified Stock Options
If a stock is exercised after vesting, then the optionee reports compensation income equal to the amount by which the stock value exceeds the exercise price. This amount is now included in the tax basis of the stock, so they have a basis equal to their fair market value. Any subsequent change in value will result in capital gain or loss, which will be long-term if the sale occurs more than a year after the option was exercised.

Most optionees exercise and hold for a year to take advantage of long-term capital gains treatment. This however exposes them to “capital loss whipsaw”. Imagine you own PSI Net with a $100,000 gain at the time of exercise. The stock proceeds to go down $90,000 before the shares are sold a year later. Now you will report $100,000 of in compensation income with a capital loss of $90,000. You can only deduct $3000 of the capital loss and will end up paying ordinary income taxes on $97,000 even though her true profit is only $10,000!

The benefits of exercising and holding nonqualified stock options do not outweigh the risks associated with holding them over time.

Tax Implications for Incentive Stock Options
AMT tax has made it more difficult for those with ISOs who’s with income between $150,000 and $380,000. This is because the AMT tax increases the tax rate for those income brackets. Individuals making more than $382,000 already are paying higher taxes and are not affected by AMT (ISO impact). Options are to exercise and sell, exercise and hold for one year in hopes to reduce the tax liability, or a combination of the two.

There is a significant amount of risk in holding the stock for a year in hopes of reducing the tax on the gain. This is due to the fact that you will pay tax in the year you exercise and may lose value in the stock by holding it an additional year. To get the best of both worlds, possible capital gains treatment with lower risk, consider selling 65% of the stock immediately and holding the remainder for a year. This allows you to take some of the risk off the table and still reap the benefit of the capital gains tax. Ratios will vary depending on the amount of the gain and the tax credit. It is important that you consult your tax advisor before making any decisions as they relate to non qualified and qualified stock options.

Source: FPA Seminar on Stock Option Planning for Corporate Executives by Kay Thomas, Founder of the National Board of Certified Option Advisors.

Federal Reserve Forum

The Federal Reserve has now completed 15 consecutive 1/4 rate increases since June of 2004. This means that if you have a home equity line, your rate has nearly doubled from 4% to 7.75% over the past year and half. According to Tom Millon of the Capital Markets Cooperative, “The futures market placed 100% probability on a 5.00% funds rate in May, and 40% odds on 5.25% shortly thereafter in June. A week ago, the odds of a June hike were virtually nil. Rising commodity and energy prices, rising employment, rising gold, and a growing world economy create ripe conditions for the potential to add to inflationary pressures."

The Value of Asset Allocation: A Case for Indexing

Large cap stocks or mutual funds are core to any portfolio. Allocations to this asset class range from 15% to 35% depending on risk tolerance. (If you have more than this, you may want to evaluate your portfolio!) Most of us have seen the articles featured in the Wall Street Journal where a chimpanzee throwing darts at a stock page tends to outperform Wall Street’s brightest managers. Over the past 20 years there have been numerous studies on the value of selecting managed mutual funds vs. simply buying an index fund.

An index fund is mutual fund designed to mimic the returns of a given stock market index such as the S& P 500. For example, the Schwab Institutional S & P 500 Index fund simply utilizes a computer model to purchase all of the US’s largest 500 stocks in a weighting equal to their market cap.

According to a recent article in the Journal of Financial Planning by Thomas P. McGuigan, CFP, the large cap fund index (S& P 500) outperformed managed mutual funds 72% to 84% of the time over rolling 5,10, 15 and 20 year periods since 1993. The study concluded that the longer the period of time, the more likely the index beat the managed funds. The percentage of mutual funds that outpaced the index fund was only 10.59%. Thus, only 18 of 171 mutual funds outperformed the index fund over 20 years. The majority of out performers, 12 out of 18, only outperformed by 1% or less. This study did not take into account all the funds that are no longer in existence. If this figure was included, the percentage of funds that beat the index would be even lower. The study also found that the cost of selecting the wrong fund was very high.

The majority of the underperformers (113 funds), missed the mark by 1 percent or more. In my opinion, these odds are just not worth the risk.

Why is it that a chimp can outperform a manager in large cap stock selection? The answer lies in market efficiency, managed fund expenses and taxes. The US stock market and particularly the large cap stocks are nearly perfectly efficient. This means that the markets impound information into prices so well that the analysis of publicly available information will not produce excess returns. Thus manager out performance is simply luck rather than skill.

In addition to market efficiency, fund costs have a huge impact on performance. Fund costs include expense ratios, commissions, bid ask spreads and impact costs. Expense ratios are the cost of staff and overhead. Commissions and bid ask spreads are the actual costs of trading stocks. Impact costs relate to the expense associated with liquidating a large position in a particular stock. These expenses range form 1 to 2 percent per year for all funds.

On the other hand, an index fund has considerable lower expenses. For example, the Schwab Institutional S &P 500 Index fund mentioned above has a total expense ratio of just .22%. This gives the index fund a considerable advantage over its peers. Not only do managed funds have to beat the index, they must also cover their expenses. If the case above for indexing is not powerful enough, consider the impact of taxes. Managed portfolios generate nearly twice as much tax liability as index funds.

If all of the hold true for large cap stocks, what about smaller cap funds and international funds? While fund costs for these asset classes are actually higher, markets are less efficient giving some managers the edge. I generally used index funds for large cap portfolios and best in class institutional money managers for other asset classes.

Book Review: The Intelligent Asset Allocator

The Intelligent Asset Allocator
By William Bernstein

"As its title suggest, Bill Bernstein's fine book honors the sensible principles of Benjamin Graham in the Intelligent Investor Bernstein's concepts are sound, his writing crystal clear, and his exposition orderly. Any reader who takes the time and effort to understand his approach to the crucial subject of asset allocation will surely be rewarded with enhanced long-term returns."
– John C. Bogle

Founder & Former Chief Executive Officer, The Vanguard Group
President, Bogle Financial Markets Research Center
Author, Common Sense on Mutual Funds

Book Review: The Lexus and the Olive Tree

The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
By Thomas Friedman

One day in 1992, Thomas Friedman toured a Lexus factory in Japan and marveled at the robots that put the luxury cars together. That evening, as he ate sushi on a Japanese bullet train, he read a story about yet another Middle East squabble between Palestinians and Israelis. And it hit him: Half the world was lusting after those Lexuses, or at least the brilliant technology that made them possible, and the other half was fighting over who owned which olive tree.

Friedman, the well-traveled New York Times foreign-affairs columnist, peppers The Lexus and the Olive Tree with stories that illustrate his central theme: that globalization--the Lexus--is the central organizing principle of the post-cold war world, even though many individuals and nations resist by holding onto what has traditionally mattered to them--the olive tree.

Problem is, few of us understand what exactly globalization means. As Friedman sees it, the concept, at first glance, is all about American hegemony, about Disneyfication of all corners of the earth. But the reality, thank goodness, is far more complex than that, involving international relations, global markets, and the rise of the power of individuals (Bill Gates, Osama Bin Laden) relative to the power of nations.

No one knows how all this will shake out, but The Lexus and the Olive Tree is as good an overview of this sometimes brave, sometimes fearful new world as you'll find. --Lou Schuler

Book Review: Pioneering Portfolio Management

Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Investment

by David F. Swensen

During his fourteen years as Yale's chief investment officer, David F. Swensen has transformed the management of the university's portfolio. Largely by focusing on nonconventional strategies, including a heavy allocation to private equity, Swensen has achieved an annualized return of 16.2 percent, which has propelled Yale's endowment into the top tier of institutional funds. Now, this acknowledged leader of fund managers draws on his experience and deep knowledge of the financial markets to provide a compendium of powerful investment strategies.

Swensen presents an overview of the investment world populated by institutional fund managers, pension fund fiduciaries, investment managers, and trustees of universities, museums, hospitals, and foundations. He offers penetrating insights from his experience managing Yale's endowment, ranging from broad issues of goals and investment philosophy to the strategic and tactical aspects of portfolio management. Swensen's exceptionally readable book addresses critical concepts such as handling risk, selecting investment advisers, and negotiating the opportunities and pitfalls in individual asset classes. Fundamental investment ideas are illustrated by real-world concrete examples, and each chapter contains strategies that any manager can put into action.

At a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to cope with the relentless challenges provided by today's financial markets, Swensen's book is an indispensable roadmap for creating a successful investment program for every institutional fund manager. Any student of markets will benefit from Pioneering Portfolio Management.

Credit: Barnes and Noble

The Perfect Storm; Bubble Trouble

A friend of mine recently asked me if I were interested in going “in with him and some of his neighbors” to buy some townhouses to “flip for a profit”. They were forming a partnership in order “to get in on some of the hot real estate deals” that are now available. These were not traditional real estate investors but successful businessmen in the cable industry. Another friend said she doubled her investment on a second home she purchased at the beach less than a year ago. A few others have purchased speculative condos and are “hoping to make a killing”.

It all reminds me of 1989, the year I purchased my first home. The market was red hot and interest rates were on the rise. I couldn’t wait to get into the real estate market so I could enjoy some of the appreciation everyone else was realizing. I purchased the home for $289,000. Less than three years later, I listed it for $262,000, a drop of nearly 10%. After fix up and closing costs, I had to write a check for $14,000. Most of you will remember this time when rates were increasing, housing prices were falling, and the stock market was stagnant. Is this what the next 3 years have in store for us? As financial planners, it is our job to see through the noise and lead our clients down the safer path.

Real Estate Reaches Record Appreciation Levels
Recently, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the government entity charged with ensuring the capital adequacy and financial safety and soundness of FNMA and FHLMC, published its House Price Index for 2004. For the 5th consecutive year, housing prices have increased by more than 7.5% nationwide. National housing prices increased by 10.24% in the 2004. Here are the to 10 states ranked by appreciation over the past 5 years:


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Conundrum
The Federal Reserve has increased short-term rates at a “measured pace” 8 times since June of 2004. Yet long-term rates such as mortgages remain below their levels of 1 year ago. Fed Guru Greenspan recently referred to the current low long term interest rates as a “conundrum” (which by the way is also a great white wine made by Caymus Vineyards)! Fed tightening, higher core inflation, near record oil prices, lower dollar, record federal budget deficit, and above trend economic growth create the perfect storm for higher long term rates and an immediate halt to appreciating property values.

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee last month, Greenspan stopped short of calling home buyers “irrationally exuberant”, but stated "I think we're running into certain problems in certain localized areas. We do have characteristics of bubbles (in those markets) but not, as best I can judge, nationwide." Publicly traded homebuilders stocks fell 10% on the comment.

Home Sales Slowing
According to Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, “the backlog of unsold homes has risen steadily, and in January approached a five-year high of 4.7 months supply. However, raw data, excluding seasonal adjustments indicate that the backlog has reached six months, which would mark an eight-year high.” While our local markets remain strong, this may be the last rush to purchase property before rates increase by too much.

Home Appreciation Outstrips Personal Income
“Median house prices have risen about 30% since March 2001, well ahead of an 11% gain in personal income”, says Michael Youngblood, head of asset-backed research at Friedman Billings & Ramsey.

Speculation on the Increase
Meanwhile, “unfettered access to easy money has inflated home prices nationwide, particularly on the coasts, and lately has let to an upsurge in speculative buying.” says Kopin Tan of Barron’s. Just as with the stock bubble in 2000, recent increases in speculative buyers and property flippers have driven up values in many urban areas like Washington DC.

“Household real-estate assets now equal nearly 14% of Gross Domestic Product, the highest proportion in two decades and eerily close to the ratio of household mutual fund and equity holdings relative to GDP at the stock market’s peak in 2000.” says Kopin Tan of Barron’s.

David Berson, the chief economist for Fannie Mae, observed in his weekly commentary that investor ownership of housing hasn't been this high since the late 1980s, which led to a crash in housing prices. "Many analysts think that a high investor share in the Northeast and California helped exacerbate the housing downturn that happened during the 1990-1991 recession”.

Bubble

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, author of "Irrational Exuberance," the 2000 best-selling book about the '90s stock-market bubble, said the only similar housing boom in U.S. history was when GIs returned home from World War II, lifting a depressed market. The latest addition of “Irrational Exuberance includes a chapter on the current real-estate trend.He thinks the current boom is a "classic bubble" because people keep buying houses they know are too expensive because they expect prices to rise even higher.

Conclusions
Ultimately it will be the level of long term interest rates that will create a local or national housing bubble. If rates exceed 6%, expect a 10% correction across the board. Larger homes will most likely be hit harder. If rates stay below this threshold, we may still see some localized drop in values in the higher end prices of homes in localized areas. The question is when?
As financial planners, it is our job to help our clients steer clear of disaster. Most real estate acquisitions are highly leveraged. This leverage works against you in a falling market. If your clients have an over allocation of real estate, it may be time to rebalance.